Disney’s live-action “Moana” opened to $43 million domestically and $95 million worldwide this past weekend, a number that barely clears the $42.2 million domestic and $87.3 million global debut of last year’s “Snow White” bomb. Against a reported $250 million production budget before marketing, the film is now projected to lose Disney roughly $100 million by the end of its theatrical run. The original 2016 animated “Moana” opened bigger. “Moana 2” outgrossed this entire opening weekend in a single day of its Thanksgiving debut two years ago.
“Moana” did not fail in isolation. It capped a summer where nearly every big-budget franchise title aimed at nostalgia or brand recognition collapsed at the box office.
Warner Bros.’ “Supergirl” opened June 26 to $37.1 million domestically and $62 to $68 million worldwide, well under its own $55 million tracking projection. Against a production budget reported between $170 and $186 million, plus a $120 million marketing spend, the film needed roughly $300 million in theatrical revenue just to break even. It never got close. The second weekend brought a 74 to 77 percent drop to under $9 million domestic, one of the steepest falloffs in superhero movie history, leaving the DC Universe’s second theatrical entry stalled around $100 to $107 million worldwide and projected losses between $85 million and $125 million.
Amazon MGM’s “Masters of the Universe” opened June 5 to $29.3 million domestic and $54 million worldwide on a budget reported between $170 and $200 million. The film needed three full weekends just to crawl past the $100 million global mark, a fraction of what a movie at that budget requires to turn a profit.
Disney’s own “The Mandalorian and Grogu” fared little better over Memorial Day weekend, opening to $82 million domestic on a $165 million budget. The film cleared its production cost in the opening frame, then fell 70 to 72 percent in its second weekend to roughly $24 million, a collapse steep enough that it got outgrossed domestically by two microbudget horror films directed by YouTubers within weeks of its release.
None of this is new. Disney’s live-action “Snow White” bombed the same way in spring 2025, opening to $42.2 million domestic and finishing at just $205.6 million worldwide against its own $250 million budget. Even “The Little Mermaid” in 2023, often cited as a modest success with a $569.6 million global total, actually lost Disney money once the true production cost, revealed in later filings to have ballooned past $355 million before marketing, got factored in. The pattern spans three straight years of nostalgia remakes and legacy franchise sequels landing short of their budgets, regardless of studio.
The films that did work this summer share nothing with “Moana,” “Supergirl,” or “Masters of the Universe” except a release calendar. “Obsession,” a $750,000 horror film from 26-year-old YouTuber and TikTok creator Curry Barker, opened to $26.4 million and has since crossed $206 million worldwide. “Backrooms,” a $10 million film from 20-year-old YouTuber Kane Parsons, opened to $81.4 million, nearly matching “The Mandalorian and Grogu’s” opening weekend on a budget less than one-sixteenth the size, and has since topped $168 million. Universal and Illumination’s “Minions & Monsters” held steady through its run on an $85 million budget, crossing $280 million worldwide without the benefit of a single recognizable movie star.
The gap is not about audiences rejecting big spectacle. It is about audiences rejecting the same handful of studios recycling the same IP with the same visual template and calling it a release slate. Two first-time YouTube directors made films for less combined than the marketing budget alone on “Supergirl,” and both films outearned or nearly matched films that cost twenty to thirty times as much.
Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” opens July 17 into this exact environment, carrying a $250 million budget, a cast already at war with critics over its treatment of Homer’s source material, and IMAX exclusivity that has driven a year of advance ticket sales. Universal is betting that the pre-sale numbers and Nolan’s box office track record insulate the film from the pattern above. Given what happened to Moana, Supergirl, and Masters of the Universe this summer, is a $250 million budget and a built-in fanbase enough to guarantee “The Odyssey” avoids the same fate, or has that formula already stopped working?
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The difference with the Odyssey is Christopher Nolan is brilliant. I'm not going to see it, regardless of reviews; I'd rather watch a historian do a breakdown on YouTube than sit through the woke casting production of the most lightweight translation of the poem. That said, I think it at least breaks even, thanks to Nolan's talent.
Same reason I'd watch a Ryan Coogler flick: Dude has talent and I like his work, messaging be darned. Same with Jordan Peele. Dude is a good filmmaker.