Star Wars Just Had Its Worst Opening Weekend Under Disney And The Spin Won’t Change the Numbers

The final box office numbers are in. The Mandalorian and Grogu opened to an estimated $81.9 million domestically over its three-day opening weekend and roughly $102 million over the extended four-day Memorial Day holiday frame, making it the lowest opening weekend for a Disney-era Star Wars theatrical release in North America

Prior to this film, 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story held the record for the lowest Star Wars opening under Disney with $84 million over the weekend and $103 million through the Memorial Day holiday. Solo is remembered as a franchise catastrophe — the film that ended Disney’s standalone Star Wars strategy, triggered a creative reset at Lucasfilm, and effectively cost Disney hundreds of millions on a production that should have been a commercial layup.

Mando opened below it.

Globally the film took in approximately $165 million, which technically edges out Solo’s $148 million worldwide opening. But when adjusted for inflation, Solo’s worldwide opening translates to roughly $193-195 million in 2026 dollars, meaning Star Wars drew fewer actual moviegoers this weekend than it did for a film considered the franchise’s worst modern failure. Ticket prices are higher. Premium format screens account for a larger share of revenue. 41% of tickets sold were for IMAX or Dolby Cinema at an average of $19.43 per ticket. Strip that out and the actual headcount in theaters is lower than the raw dollar figure suggests.

Disney’s original target was a $160 million global opening. The global total came in at $165 million, technically exceeding the target, but only because international markets performed better than domestic. The American audience, which built the Star Wars franchise across fifty years, showed up at the lowest rate of any Disney-era release.

The trades are doing what they always do. Variety’s headline read: “Mandalorian and Grogu Lifts Off With $102 Million Over Memorial Day Holiday.” The Hollywood Reporter called it “Star Wars Box Office Rebound.” The framing of a franchise record low as a rebound and a liftoff is the industry press managing expectations on Disney’s behalf.

The context behind the number tells a longer story. Disney bought Lucasfilm in 2012 for $4 billion. The sequel trilogy opened strong — The Force Awakens at $248 million domestically, Rogue One at $155 million, The Last Jedi at $220 million — then collapsed as audience confidence eroded. The Rise of Skywalker limped to $177 million in 2019 amid audience rejection of the sequel trilogy’s creative direction. Disney retreated to Disney+ content for five years: The Mandalorian, Book of Boba Fett, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Andor, Ahsoka, The Acolyte. Several of those shows performed poorly. The Acolyte was canceled after one season. The Book of Boba Fett drew criticism for undercutting the Mando show itself. Kathleen Kennedy’s tenure as Lucasfilm president, which produced the sequel trilogy, the Disney+ era, and now this theatrical return, has been the defining creative and commercial arc of what Disney did with the franchise.

Pop culture analyst Nerdortic mocked the numbers on X this weekend, saying, “The Mandalorian and Grogu still might beat out Solo without adjusting for inflation. A flop that came out 8 years ago. Star Wars is BACK, chuds!”

Bob Iger’s decision to pivot Favreau’s television scripts into a theatrical event has not produced a theatrical event. The director of the film told press this week he was not exactly sure why he was asked to make the franchise’s theatrical comeback. “I suspect it was because these are characters that people, even who hadn’t seen Star Wars, may be aware of, especially Grogu. Baby Yoda was everywhere.” That is the creative rationale for the first Star Wars film in seven years: Baby Yoda was everywhere.

The next confirmed Star Wars theatrical release is Star Wars: Starfighter, slated for May 2027. Disney will point to Mando’s global total as a signal that the theatrical franchise is healthy. The domestic number, adjusted for inflation, compared to a film that ended a creative era in 2018, tells the actual story.

Does $102 million domestic on Memorial Day weekend represent a Star Wars comeback or a continuation of the franchise’s decline? Let us know in the comments.

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