Disney Is Planning Moana 3 While the Live-Action Moana Tracks Toward Becoming One of Its Biggest Bombs
Moana opens Thursday. The domestic opening projection sits at $45-60 million on a reported $200 million budget. Global Box Office reported on X: “MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, has pre-sales bombing harder than expected. The projection for its domestic opening weekend is now down to $45M-$60M. With a budget of ~$200M, it is on track to become one of Disney’s biggest bombs.” That Park Place
Simultaneously, Disney is already in discussions about Moana 3.
The original animated Moana opened in November 2016. Moana 2 opened in November 2024 and crossed one billion dollars worldwide. The live-action remake arrives July 10, 2026 — eighteen months after the sequel. In a short period of time, audiences will have received the original Moana, Moana 2, the live-action remake, and potentially Moana 3.
The franchise overexposure is one problem. The deeper problem is that Moana is arriving in the middle of a sustained Hollywood box office collapse that Disney contributed to and has not corrected.
The Mandalorian and Grogu opened to $81.7 million on a $165 million budget in March — the lowest Star Wars theatrical gross in franchise history. Brendan Wayne, one of the suit performers, called the fans who stayed home “toxic” during the same week. Masters of the Universe opened to $29.3 million on a $170-200 million budget in June, while a $10 million YouTube horror film beat it in its same opening weekend. Supergirl spent $170 million to open at $37.1 million and is projected to lose over $100 million theatrically. These are not coincidences spread across competing studios. Three of the four biggest Hollywood underperformers of 2026 came from the same entertainment infrastructure that is now releasing Moana.
The Snow White comparison is the one Disney does not want made. Snow White became a major financial disappointment after years of controversy and audience skepticism, earning just $205.7 million worldwide during its run. The Little Mermaid before it drew 73% dislikes on its trailer and earned $570 million worldwide on a budget that required considerably more. Both properties have something in common with Moana: they arrived with pre-existing audience skepticism, casting controversies that dominated the news cycle, and trailers that generated more negative reaction than positive. Disney watched both films underperform and then announced a live-action Moana remake while Moana 2 was still on screens.
The biggest question may not be whether audiences like Moana. But nostalgia requires distance. Lilo and Stitch worked in 2025 with a 30-year gap. Moana’s gap is ten years, and Moana 2 cut that in half.
Dwayne Johnson, who voiced Maui in both animated films, returns in the live-action version and has been one of its most active promoters. The Maui comparisons to T-Mobile commercials and SNL parody characters have run since the first trailer dropped. Johnson stood outside Trump Tower in a photo posted to social media this week and said nothing about Moana — a notable contrast with the months of promotional activity he committed to around Black Adam, which opened to $67 million and finished its global run at $393 million on a $200 million budget.
The tracking numbers are moving in the wrong direction with three days until opening. The latest update represents another troubling sign for the film, as Global Box Office was one of the first trackers to dramatically lower expectations for the remake. If Moana opens at $50 million, it needs a 4x domestic multiple and exceptional international legs just to approach breakeven. The audience that made Moana 2 a billion-dollar global film watched that sequel come out eighteen months ago. They have seen this story twice. The question Disney has not answered is why they need to see it a third time before Moana 3 is ready.
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