Tom Cruise's 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' Predicted To Perform 15% Worse Than 'Dead Reckoning' In Its Opening Weekend

Long range tracking for Tom Cruise’s next film, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, has come in and it does not look good for the film as the predictions are currently more than 15% worse than the opening weekend for Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning.

Shawn Robbins at Box Office Theory revealed he’s predicting The Final Reckoning will only gross between $59 million and $67 million in its opening weekend at the domestic box office. He shared a pinpoint prediction of $65 million.

For comparison, Dead Reckoning grossed $78.4 million at the domestic box office when it released in the middle of July in 2023. That means that The Final Reckoning is pacing 16.6% behind Dead Reckoning and that does not even factor in inflation.

Robbins does indicate that the 4-day Memorial Day weekend will bring grosses to $81 million. Dead Reckoning opened the weekend of July 14th and there was no holiday.

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Interestingly, while the opening weekend looks worse, the overall gross looks better than Dead Reckoning. Robbins projects the film will have an entire domestic haul between $175 million and $225 million. His pinpoint projection is $205 million.

Dead Reckoning grossed $172.6 million during its entire domestic run. If Robbins’ projection comes true that would be an 18% increase from Dead Reckoning. Even if you factor in inflation it is still a 13% increase.

Robbins believes this film will do better in the long-term because it will not be competing against the likes of Barbie and Oppenheimer and it won’t lose high-dollar premium screens. He noted, “Final Reckoning aims to restore some of the brand and Cruise’s stalwart drawing power with less direct competition ahead in the early summer weeks this time.” However, he did add the caveat, “It’s also fair to consider that much of its target audience has become more selective about going to movie theater’s since the series’ box office peak with Fallout in 2018.”

The first film had an average IMDb score of just 7.6 out of 10 from over 284,000 reviews.

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The film had a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

What do you make of these projections for Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning?

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