Box office projections for Thunderbolts’ second weekend predict the film have a solid hold with grosses only declining around 50%.
Box office analyst Shawn Robbins reports at Box Office Theory that the film is expected to have a domestic gross between $35 and $40 million. On the low end that’s nearly a 53% decline from the film’s domestic opening weekend of $74.3 million. On the high end that’s a 46% decline.
At Box Office Report, it predicts the film will gross $36.5 million, which is only a 51% decline. Box Office Pro predicts the film will bring in between $34 million and $40 million. On the low end that’s a decline of 54%.
For comparison, Avengers: Infinity War had a 55% decline in its second weekend. More recently, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 had a second weekend decline of 48%.
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However, while the holds might be similar to Avengers: Infinity War and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, the film had the second worst opening weekend in MCU history when factoring in inflation.
Box office analyst OMB Reviews notes, “Even with these really good drops, and, again, objectively speaking, they are very, very good strong drops especially for these massive type movies, it is still something that it has to overcome.”
He then shared that if the film does meet these projections that “$500 million+ for this film is absolutely on the table. And that means, that guess what? At $540 million at its break even point this film now has a chance to actually hit a break even point.”
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That might not necessarily be the case as there is one data point that Thunderbolts might not have the legs that these weekend projections are predicting for it. And that’s the fact that film’s first Wednesday performed worse than Eternals’ first Wednesday when adjusting inflation.
The-Numbers reports that Thunderbolts only did $4.3 million on its first Wednesday while Eternals did $4.6 million. When adjusted for inflation Eternals only grossed $446.7 million globally. Eternals also had a larger opening weekend bringing in an inflation-adjusted $79.2 million.
What do you make of these box office projections for Thunderbolts’ second weekend?
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