Box office projections for James Gunn’s upcoming Superman film have shifted downward in recent weeks.
At the end of Shawn Robbins at Box Office Theory projected the film would have an opening 3-day weekend between $154 million and $185 million with a pinpoint projection of $175 million. Additionally, he projected the film would gross between $392 million and $510 million with a pinpoint projection of $477 million for its entire domestic run.
However, on June 13th, he significantly lowered the film’s low-end of his opening weekend projections to $140 million with the top end staying steady at $185 million. That’s nearly a 10% decline. He did not provide a pinpoint projection. As for the film’s overall domestic gross he also lowered its bottom end to $370 million while the top end stayed constant at $510 million. That’s a declined of almost 6%. He did not provide a pinpoint projection.
As for why he lowered his low-end projections, Robbins explained, “We’re slightly widening our range given the complicated nature of Superman entering a pre-sale market already competing for the attention (and dollars) of How to Train Your Dragon, 28 Years Later, F1: The Movie, Jurassic World Rebirth, and the aforementioned Fantastic Four, while keeping in mind ad campaigns and reviews/social buzz remain a very important and unknown piece of the more bullish outlook puzzle.”
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However, Robbins’ already lowered projections might still be way too high. Deadline reports that while the film arrived on tracking with a range between $125 million and $145 million it has been lowered significantly to between $90 million and $125 million. That’s a decline of 28% on the low end and almost 14% on the high end.
Furthermore, Deadline claims that Superman is polling behind Captain America: Brave New World, which had an opening weekend of just $88.8 million. It’s also polling behind Matt Reeves’ The Batman, which had an opening weekend of $134 million back in 2022.
If these new projections are accurate, the film would have a worse opening weekend than Zack Snyder’s Man of Steel. It grossed $116.6 million back in 2013. If you adjust for inflation that’s $160.9 million.
It’s quite possible that DC Studios knows the film won’t be a homerun success. James Gunn was asked by Rolling Stone earlier this month, “There are people who’ve been saying the whole future of the studio might be riding on this movie. How do you work in the face of that kind of pressure?”
Gunn replied, “Really, I just go, ‘That’s their business.’ Because that’s not the truth for me. My truth is this is the first movie out of DC Studios. Other people may say, ‘It’s gotta be a home run, nothing else.’ I’m like, ‘No, I’d be very happy with a double.’”
Next, he brought up Marvel Studios’ Iron Man, “F***king Iron Man wasn’t the be-all and end-all. It wasn’t Avatar. We are doing something that’s a piece of the puzzle. It’s not the puzzle itself.”
To that point, he shared, “We have Peacemaker, we have Supergirl, and what we want to do is make a movie that people love, they feel connected to the characters. It’s just this one movie. It’s not everything.”
Gunn then noted that the benchmark for him is breaking even with the film, “I hate it when there’s a f***ing article and it’s going on about all the problems and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, and ‘that means even more pressure on James Gunn and Superman.’ I’m like, ‘Guys, I’m not responsible for all that. I’m responsible for my piece of the pie. I’ve gotta make my budget back. I’ll be very happy with that.’”
The film reportedly has a budget of $225 million according to Umberto Gonzalez at TheWrap. Furthermore, he claims the film “needs to cross the $700 million threshold at the global box office to be considered a success, according to a top talent agent.”
What do you make of these new box office projections for Gunn’s Superman film?
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He’s dead Jim! Superman is dead!