'Fantastic Four: First Steps' Expecting At Least 60% Decline In Second Weekend

Marvel Studios’ latest film, Fantastic Four: First Steps, is expected to have a sizeable 60% decline at the box office in its second weekend.

Anthony D’Alessandro at Deadline claims sources tell him that the film will see its domestic grosses decline 60%. Given the film grossed just $117.6 million in its domestic opening, a 60% decline would be a second weekend of just $46 million.

That’s not out of the ordinary for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film. For example, earlier this year Captain America: Brave New World saw a 68% decline from its opening weekend to its second weekend. Similarly, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania saw a 70% decline back in 2023. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever also saw a decline of 63%. Even Deadpool & Wolverine had a 54% decline just last year.

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However, the problem with Fantastic Four: First Steps is the fact that the film only grossed $117.6 million in its opening weekend. Wakanda Forever grossed $181.3 million. Deadpool & Wolverine did $211.4 million.

Furthermore, it still has a production budget of at least $200 million albeit a rumor from Matt McGloin at Cosmic Book News claims the budget exploded to $350 million. Even at the low end the film needs to gross at least $600 million to break even, based on its current trajectory it might not even do $500 million. On the high end of $350 million it would have to do around $1.05 billion.

And it’s definitely possible the film’s budget exploded given Marvel films typically see their budgets explode. Caroline Reid at Forbes shared that Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Widow, and Eternals all saw their costs exceed their budgets.

What do you make of Fantastic Four: First Steps’ box office trajectory?

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