A new report claims that pre-sales for Marvel Studios’ upcoming Captain America: Brave New World movie are “on par with Eternals.”
In a post to X, box office analyst Luiz Fernando shared, “After 2 days of pre-sales, although nowhere near Quantumania which opened on the same weekend in 2023, Captain America: Brave New World is currently 1.4x better than The Marvels & Joker: Folie A Deux, on par with Eternals & not far from Black Widwo & Dune: Part Two after their first 2 days of pre-sales.”
He then speculated, “Keeping the same pacing in relation to the other films, Captain America 4 could be securing a 3-day opening above both Thor and Captain: America: The First Avenger’s, and could even challenge Shang-Chi’s 3-day opening, which was higher than Eternals thanks to positive WOM and Labor Day holiday boost, similar to what Captain America 4 will also benefit, specially on SUN.”
Finally, he concluded, “But Captain America has an advantage none of those films had: it’s coming right after Deadpool and Wolverine, which certainly brought the MCU back to several casuals’ radar. And that alone could help Cap4 to achieve stronger walks up than its comps ever could.”
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Fernando’s analysis comes in the wake of Shawn Robbins at Box Office Theory predicting the film would gross between $81 million and $107 million in its opening weekend. He ultimately predicted the film would gross $96 million.
As for the film’s entire run at the domestic box office, he predicted it will gross between $195 million and $280 million. He ultimately predicted $240 million.
Deadline’s Anthony D’Alessandro also reported that box office tracking service Quorum predicted the film would gross between $86 million and $95 million in its first three-days at the box office.
If Fernando’s analysis is accurate that means both Robbins and Quorum likely overestimated their long-range predictions given Eternals only had an opening weekend of $71.2 million.
Furthermore, The Marvels’ opening weekend was just $46.1 million and if you multiply that by 1.4 you get $64.5 million.
That $64.5 million number is on par to what Captain America: The First Avenger grossed all the way back in 2011. It grossed $65 million in its opening weekend, but that does not factor in inflation. If you do factor in inflation, the film grossed $90.7 million. That means the film could be on pace to perform worse nearly 30% worse than Captain America: The First Avenger in just total gross.
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Based on this information, it is likely to conclude this film will lose a significant chunk of change for both Marvel Studios and The Walt Disney Company. A rumor from World of Reel last June claimed the initial budget was $275 million but reshoots would cost between $75 million to $100 million. And this did not include further reshoots that have taken place since this report.
Even with a $350 million budget, the film would need to gross at least $875 million in its entire box office run to break even.
Eternals only grossed $401.7 million, Shang-Chi only did $432 million, and Black Widow only did $379.7 million albeit it was released day-and-date on Disney+.
What do you make of this report regarding the ticket pre-sales for Captain America: Brave New World?
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oh dear how sad never mind. I wanted to see Captain America First Avenger. I had no interest in Falcon unless it was blue falcon and dynomite the dog wonder