A new report alleges that Marvel Studios’ upcoming Captain America: Brave New World film is expected to have a mediocre opening weekend both domestically and globally.
Deadline reports that Captain America: Brave New World is expected to have a domestic 3-day opening of just $80 million. The outlet also predicts it will make $94 million in its 4-day opening due to President’s Day on Monday.
As for its global opening, it noted that the film is currently expected to bring in $190 million.
The report also detailed that the film’s pre-sales are pacing 10-15% below Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which had a domestic opening of $106.1 million.
Those numbers are suspect given an $80 million opening for Brave New World would be a nearly 25% decline from Quantumania. In order for that to track, it’s likely they are not expecting as much walk-up traffic compared to Quantumania.
Deadline also claims the film is tracking 40% ahead of Eternals in pre-sales. That film only grossed $71.2 million. If those pre-sales tracked 1:1 to opening, Brave New World should be expected to bring in around $100 million in its opening weekend. Given the expectations are at $80 million, the models seem to indicate that day of purchases are going to be lower than both Eternals and Quantumania.
While Deadline predicts the film will only do $80 million in its opening 3-day weekend, Sean Robbins at Box Office Theory believes the film could bring in between $86 million and $105 million with a pinpoint prediction of $90 million.
Those numbers are up compared to his five-week forecast, where he noted the range was between $81 million and $98 million albeit his pinpoint prediction was still $90 million.
Robbins also predicts the film only gross between $207 million and $274 million in total at the domestic box office. His pinpoint prediction is $240 million.
For comparisons, the last Captain America film, 2016’s Captain America: Civil War had a domestic opening of $179.1 million. That’s only about 6% less than the current global expectation of $190 million.
The film grossed $200.4 million internationally in its opening weekend for a global gross of $379.5 million. The current global expectations for Brave New World are 50% lower than Civil War.
Brave New World’s global expectations are also lower than Deadpool & Wolverine’s domestic opening. It grossed $211.4 million domestically last year. The film grossed $444.1 million globally in its opening weekend.
On the bright side, the expectations for its opening weekend are nearly more than The Marvels’ entire run at the box office. The film only grossed $199.7 million during its entire run in theaters back in 2023.
What do you make of these box office expectations for Captain America: Brave New World?